Elections tomorrow. I love Election Day. Since I was a kid, I have always liked sitting in front of the TV and watching the election results with my family. That is what I will be doing tomorrow night. I'll probably make a bunch of phone calls. Feel free to call my cell phone if you want. I'm always pretty excited on election night.
I've always loved politics even as I grew to hate politicians. I remember when I was 12, I replaced my Mother's sink so that I could stay up late and watch a McGovern infomercial. Politics, and particularly Presidential politics are just fun.
I wanted to share some thoughts on the market and these elections.
The market expects Obama to win. An Obama victory is already priced into the market. Should McCain pull off one of the greatest upsets in political history, I would expect the market to initially react negatively. Wall Street hates surprises and the civil distress and negative world reaction that would likely accompany that upset would be unsettling for the markets in the short-term.
In the longer term, I expect the economy and the stock market to recover regardless of who wins tomorrow.
Manufacturing hit a 26 year low last month. The lowest levels since September of 1982....one month after the beginning of the longest, greatest, and most powerful bull market in history.
I also think that it will be good to have this race finally come to an end. Political elections are divisive. They spread fear. Each party seeks to cast the opposition in such a negative light that it is hard not to buy into the fear. The news media hard sells the fear in order to keep you tuned in. By the end of the process, the country is divided into two camps each absolutely certain that the world will come to a quick and horrific end if the other guy gets elected.
Despite those fears, we've managed to survive and prosper through 55 Presidential Elections and I imagine we will survive a few more.
I've always loved politics even as I grew to hate politicians. I remember when I was 12, I replaced my Mother's sink so that I could stay up late and watch a McGovern infomercial. Politics, and particularly Presidential politics are just fun.
I wanted to share some thoughts on the market and these elections.
The market expects Obama to win. An Obama victory is already priced into the market. Should McCain pull off one of the greatest upsets in political history, I would expect the market to initially react negatively. Wall Street hates surprises and the civil distress and negative world reaction that would likely accompany that upset would be unsettling for the markets in the short-term.
In the longer term, I expect the economy and the stock market to recover regardless of who wins tomorrow.
Manufacturing hit a 26 year low last month. The lowest levels since September of 1982....one month after the beginning of the longest, greatest, and most powerful bull market in history.
I also think that it will be good to have this race finally come to an end. Political elections are divisive. They spread fear. Each party seeks to cast the opposition in such a negative light that it is hard not to buy into the fear. The news media hard sells the fear in order to keep you tuned in. By the end of the process, the country is divided into two camps each absolutely certain that the world will come to a quick and horrific end if the other guy gets elected.
Despite those fears, we've managed to survive and prosper through 55 Presidential Elections and I imagine we will survive a few more.
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